Tech entrepreneurship - your intuitions are wrong.

We are after all a function of our experiences. These experiences help us with "better perspectives". Help build our intuition. However there is a context in which you build those perspectives and intuitions and they may or may not be applicable to your entrepreneurial journey.

What you can actually leverage:

Your idea

This is completely in your hands and is the first thing that you need to nail. A valuable, solvable problem is important.
Also your idea isn't exactly novel. If you have thought about it, there are chances that there are many others who have thought of something similar. Only, they might not have the resources to execute on it or might have thought it isn't worth solving for. So, ask people if they will be willing to use what you build, go further, will they be willing to pay for it? How much? I cannot underscore how important it is to build conviction.
Some of the best ideas I have seen are borne out of a problem the founder lived themselves.....but that's a discussion for another day.

Your understanding of technology

As a technologist this is your strength. Leverage it. You are probably an engineer yourself. You understand better than most what can be and what cannot be done. How much time would it realistically take. To what extent can the problem be parallelised? Is this something that can have lots of edge cases? Will it be easy to replicate? How much of throwaway work can I afford? Should I build or buy certain aspects. Nobody understands this better this better than you. I cannot emphasise this enough, bank on your strengths.

Your network

"The universe is not hostile, nor is it friendly. It is simply indifferent." - Richard Dawkins

I do not see Richard Dawkins's quote as being pessimistic. It is actually a matter of fact. Often times we go into our shell. "Stealth" , "Under the radar" are words you often hear when posed with what people are building. I am not so sure if it's a good idea. While you may not want to shout from the rooftops about what you are doing, whether you are an experienced professional or you are fresh out of college, you have your network. There are some people who want you to succeed. You have to believe it. You have to also believe that most people are way too busy with their own struggles to have anything untoward to say about you. The more you communicate your solution to people, you better your probabilities to succeed. You are in charge, and you need customers. The first few contracts when I went on to launch PerceptInsight in fact came from my own network. They showed an immense trust in what I built and went on to also propagate that message to others.

Now to where your intuitions go wrong

A yes is a no, a no is a maybe, a maybe is a no

As technologists we are perhaps used to straightforward conversations.
Here is a typical conversation between an Engineer and Product Manager or scoping and effort estimates:
Engineer: "This requirement will take 4 weeks to implement".
PM: "Is it possible to get it done in 3 weeks?"
Engineer: "If you drop X,Y,Z features, we can try"
PM: "Can we keep X and drop Y and Z and still get it done in 3 weeks? "
Engineer" "No."
However when you enter the startup arena and this is especially true in the B2B world, there are absolutely no straightforward conversations.
There will be a set of people who will find it hard to say no to you. They will lead you on and you will bank on them to give you their business. They wont. You will lose time, worse would have built custom features for them.
Then some might be interested but will say no. They are just trying to see how hungry you are, maybe they are trying to gain some leverage. You might take it on face value and decide not to pursue them. Opportunity lost.
Then there are some who will say they will maybe consider this if you build this feature. I recommend to read it as a no. If they really wanted to come aboard they would. Most of us because we take things at face value end up wasting time building those features on a "hope" that it will get the potential customer to convert. It will not.
In the business arena there are absolutely no play books. So do not go on the lookout for one. Also there is no deal till someone makes a payment or signs a contract.

The growth paradox

Predictive analytics are powerful tools in established industries, where historical data can inform future trends. However, in the startup ecosystem, the landscape is often uncharted, and past data may be irrelevant or misleading. Startups operate in environments characterised by uncertainty, rapidly changing consumer preferences, and technological advancements, making it challenging to rely solely on historical performance indicators.
You see, growth most times takes much longer time than one anticipates and once it starts happening it hastens . It happens gradually, and then suddenly. Most initial growth predictions hence are going to be wrong. It is important to remember this and not get bogged down by this.
Understanding that growth occurs in phases is essential. Initial signs of growth may be subtle and can be easily missed.
It is also important to preserve and to continuously course correct. Course correcting does not mean giving up on your ambitions but to come as close as possible to the reality.
Finally, surrounding oneself with a supportive network of mentors, advisors, and fellow entrepreneurs can be invaluable. Sharing experiences and learning from others who’ve navigated similar challenges can provide clarity and encouragement.

The "free" conundrum

Offering free products or services can indeed be an effective way to build trust and attract users initially. However, it poses a significant risk if users are engaging only because of the lack of cost, rather than genuine interest or need for the product. If consumers aren't willing to pay once the free period concludes, this suggests that the value proposition may not be strong enough to warrant a transition to a paid model.
While giving away a product for free can generate valuable initial user engagement or data, this strategy can lead to a problematic business model. If user acquisition hinges solely on free offerings, startups may find themselves in a cycle of continually investing resources without a clear path to profitability. This can be made worse if entrepreneurs are overly reliant on external funding, which may not always be available or sustainable.
Without substantial backing, offering a product for free can lead to premature burnout of financial resources. Startups typically have limited budgets, and repeated giveaways or large-scale free offerings can quickly drain allocated funds. Unlike established organisations, which may have a seemingly unlimited budget due to their existing revenue streams, startups need to manage cash flow carefully.
Achieving PMF is imperative in identifying a viable business model. While acquiring 100 customers through substantial discounts or free offers might inflate early metrics, it does not necessarily indicate a sustainable PMF. Real PMF is demonstrated when customers find such inherent value in the product that they are willing to pay for it, regardless of promotions. Therefore, usage behaviour, engagement, and willingness to pay should be consistently evaluated beyond initial trials.

Frugality<> cutting corners

I realise that operating under constraints is good for any startup, it should not be misconstrued however into compromising on essentials. For eg if you are building something in deep tech you want to ensure you have the best engineers onboarded. Meaning, identify areas where you need to spend. Ensure that you are sufficiently funding those departments. At its core, frugality emphasises efficiency, resourcefulness, and thoughtful spending rather than simply trying to minimise costs at all costs. It is about making deliberate choices that balance quality and cost, ensuring that resources are allocated wisely without compromising on essential values or standards. For instance, a frugal organisation may opt for a more affordable option that still meets a certain quality threshold rather than going for the cheapest alternative, which could compromise functionality or longevity. Do not be penny wise pound foolish.
In case you find yourself compromising on the essentials unless you have something really novel that you have thought about you will come under enormous stress. Be mindful of this aspect.